Xi-Leaf-Reading: Decoding China's Playbook for Lee Jae-myung's Seoul
With Lee Jae-myung now in office, world capitals are recalibrating their views on South Korea’s strategic positioning. From Brussels to Washington, Seoul’s role in East Asia is being reexamined amid shifting global security dynamics. How does China fit into this evolving picture and what does Xi Jinping hope to gain during Lee’s tenure?
Join us for a timely conversation with John Delury, historian of modern China and expert on U.S.-China relations and the Korean Peninsula, in dialogue with Jeongmin Kim, Executive Director of Korea Risk Group. Drawing on John’s recent time in Europe and deep knowledge of regional geopolitics, the session will explore how allies are assessing the new administration in Seoul, China’s evolving playbook, and the strategic implications for the region.
Topics to be explored:
- Global Perspectives on South Korea: How Europe and the U.S. are viewing Seoul’s positioning amid NATO debates, Taiwan contingency planning, and broader transatlantic security concerns
- The Lee–Xi–Trump Triangle: What Beijing may want from Lee Jae-myung’s presidency, and how Trump’s second term could reshape China–South Korea relations
- China’s Strategic Playbook: What patterns emerge from Beijing’s past approach to new South Korean presidents, and how those lessons may shape its current engagement with Seoul
Date:
Tuesday, July 22, 2025
Time:
6:30 PM – 8:30 PM
Includes:
Jongno-gu, Seoul
Location:
Steak, pasta, salad
A dinner table conversation that cuts past the headlines
- Drinks are not included in the ticket price, and are payable to venue.
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We'll be joined by
Jeongmin Kim,
Executive Director of Korea Risk Group
Jeongmin Kim is Executive Director at Korea Risk Group, based in Seoul. She covers inter-Korean relations and North and South Korean foreign and military affairs. Kim has covered the 2022 ROK presidential election on the ground, and prior to joining NK News, she worked for the CSIS Korea Chair in Washington D.C. and Reuters news agency’s Seoul bureau.
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Xi-Leaf-Reading: Decoding China's Playbook for Lee Jae-myung's Seoul
We'll be joined by
John Delury,
Historian, author
John Delury is a historian of modern China and expert on US-China relations and the Korean Peninsula. He is the author of Agents of Subversion (2022) and co-author of Wealth and Power (2013). In 2023, he was the inaugural Tsao Fellow in China Studies at the American Academy in Rome, completing a book manuscript on Chinese empire. He remained in Italy as a visiting professor at Luiss and John Cabot Universities.
Previously, he spent over a decade in Seoul as Professor of Chinese Studies at Yonsei University. His work appears in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The New York Times, Journal of Asian Studies, and more. He is affiliated with the Asia Society, Sejong Institute, CSIS, and other institutions, and serves on several policy and academic boards. A Yale-trained historian (BA, MA, PhD), he was awarded the 2025 Melvin MS Goo Writing Fellowship by the East-West Center and is now returning to Seoul to write a book on North Korea.
Seoul Circuit
Seoul Circuit
With Lee Jae-myung now settled into the presidency since early June, Beijing was quick to reach out as it recalibrates its approach to Seoul.
How does China view South Korea's new leadership, and what does Xi Jinping likely hope to get during Lee's tenure? Is South Korea considered a weak link in the region? What is Lee really intending to pursue vis-à-vis China and Taiwan, now that the campaign language is over? How do partners such as Europe and the U.S. view the risks and opportunities from the new setup in East Asia?
Join us for an engaging dialogue with John Delury, a historian of modern China and expert on US-China relations and the Korean Peninsula, who will join Jeongmin Kim, Executive Director of Korea Risk Group, to decode China's strategic calculations, Beijing's past game plans, what makes Lee Jae-myung's brand of nationalism particularly intriguing in relation to China, and how U.S. and European attitudes toward East Asian security have evolved in recent years.
Topics:
- China's Strategic Pattern Analysis: How Beijing has approached early phases of South Korean presidencies from Park Geun-hye onwards, and why China views Seoul as a potential "weak link" worth cultivating
- Lee Jae-myung's Unique Nationalism: Understanding the president's Trump-era style nationalist worldview and how it differs from previous progressive leaders in calculating positions regarding China and other actors in the region
- The U.S., European POV: How NATO discussions, the Taiwan contingency scenario, and evolving transatlantic security concerns are influencing China-ROK dynamics, and vice versa
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John Delury
Historian, author
John Delury is a historian of modern China and expert on US-China relations and the Korean Peninsula. He is the author of Agents of Subversion: The Fate of John T. Downey and the CIA’s Covert War in China (Cornell University Press, 2022) and co-author with Orville Schell of Wealth and Power: China’s Long March to the Twenty-first Century (Random House, 2013). In 2023, he was the inaugural Tsao Fellow in China Studies at the American Academy in Rome, completing a book manuscript on Chinese empire. He remained in Italy as a visiting professor at Luiss and John Cabot Universities.
Previously, he spent over a decade in Seoul as Professor of Chinese Studies at Yonsei University. His work appears in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The New York Times, Journal of Asian Studies, and more. He is affiliated with the Asia Society, Sejong Institute, CSIS, and other institutions, and serves on several policy and academic boards. A Yale-trained historian (BA, MA, PhD), he was awarded the 2025 Melvin MS Goo Writing Fellowship by the East-West Center and is now returning to Seoul to write a book on North Korea.
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Jeongmin Kim,
Executive Director of Korea Risk Group
Jeongmin Kim is Executive Director at Korea Risk Group, based in Seoul. She covers inter-Korean relations and North and South Korean foreign and military affairs. Kim has covered the 2022 ROK presidential election on the ground, and prior to joining NK News, she worked for the CSIS Korea Chair in Washington D.C. and Reuters news agency’s Seoul bureau.